Global air travel demand continued its upward trajectory in March 2025, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), despite a growing gap between capacity and load factor.

Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), rose by 3.3 per cent compared to March 2024.

However, available seat kilometres (ASK) increased by 5.3 per cent year-on-year, resulting in a systemwide load factor of 80.7 per cent, 1.6 percentage points lower than in the same period last year.

In the international sector, passenger traffic grew by 4.9 per cent, though this marked a slowdown from the 5.9 per cent reported in February and the 12.5 per cent growth seen in January.

Capacity rose by 7.0 per cent, pushing the international load factor down by 1.7 percentage points to 79.9 per cent.

On the domestic front, however, demand climbed only marginally by 0.9 per cent year-on-year.

Capacity expanded by 2.5 per cent, but the domestic load factor declined by 1.3 percentage points to 82.0 per cent. The declines in the US and Australian markets were particularly notable.

Commenting on the data, Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said that passenger demand grew by 3.3 per cent year-on-year in March, describing it as a slight strengthening from the 2.7 per cent growth seen in February.

However, he noted that a capacity expansion of 5.3 per cent had outpaced the demand expansion, which led to a load factor decline from record highs to 80.7 per cent systemwide.

“There remains a lot of speculation around the potential impacts of tariffs and other economic headwinds on travel,” Walsh added.

He acknowledged that the small decline in demand in North America needs to be watched carefully but said March numbers “continued to show a global pattern of growth for air travel.”

That, he stressed, means the challenges associated with accommodating more people who need to travel, particularly by easing supply chain issues and ensuring sufficient airport and air traffic management capacity, remain urgent.

Among international markets, Asia-Pacific carriers once again led the way with a 9.9 per cent increase in demand, supported by an 11.6 per cent rise in capacity.

Despite this, the region’s load factor declined by 1.3 percentage points to 84.1 per cent.

Meanwhile, European airlines recorded a 4.9 per cent rise in international demand, while capacity expanded by 6.9 per cent.

As a result, the load factor dropped to 78.2 per cent, down by 1.5 percentage points.

In contrast, Middle Eastern carriers saw a 1 per cent year-on-year decline in international traffic, with capacity rising by 2.8 per cent. Their load factor fell sharply by 2.9 percentage points to 74.6 per cent. The timing of Ramadan is believed to have contributed to this drop.

Similarly, North American airlines reported a 0.1 per cent fall in international demand, although this marked an improvement from the 1.5 per cent decline in February. Capacity grew by 2.0 per cent, but the load factor dropped to 83 per cent, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points.

Latin American carriers, on the other hand, saw healthy growth, with international demand rising by 7.7 per cent.

However, capacity surged by 12.1 per cent, reducing the load factor by 3.3 percentage points to 80.9 per cent.

Finally, African airlines posted a 3.3 per cent increase in international demand, with capacity rising by 3.5 per cent. The region’s load factor dipped slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 70.1 per cent.

Turning to domestic performance, results varied widely across key markets. While Brazil and India saw strong gains, 8.9 and 11 per cent respectively, both the US and Australia reported

declines. US domestic demand fell by 1.7 per cent, despite a 4.2 per cent rise in capacity, pushing the load factor down sharply by 4.8 percentage points to 80.3 per cent.

Australia also saw a 1.2 per cent drop in demand, but with capacity falling even faster at 4.1 per cent, the load factor actually rose by 2.4 percentage points to 81.8 per cent.

In China, domestic demand inched up by 1.7 per cent, while capacity declined by 0.8 per cent. The resulting load factor rose by 2.1 percentage points to 83.2 per cent.

Japan’s domestic market performed well, with demand up by 8 per cent and capacity by 2.7 per cent. Load factor jumped by 4.2 percentage points to 84.4 per cent.

India led the domestic markets with an 11 per cent rise in demand and a 14.5 per cent boost in capacity. However, the load factor dropped by 2.6 percentage points to 83.3 per cent.